In agriculture, change is constant — from shifting markets and climate pressures to new regulations — but it’s the “in-between” moments, when systems are in flux and outcomes uncertain, that create what I call transitional vulnerability: a heightened exposure to risk as rules change, power dynamics surface, and capacity gaps widen. Drawing on my research with emerging ostrich farmers in South Africa’s Eastern Cape, I saw how some turned these challenges into opportunities through cooperatives, diversification, and local networks, while others were left behind when support faded. Recognising transitional vulnerability early can turn instability into a springboard for inclusive governance, future-ready capacity-building, and resilient, equitable systems.
In agriculture, change is inevitable, whether driven by shifting markets, new regulations, climate pressures, or evolving community priorities. But in these periods of transition, farmers and rural communities often find themselves in a precarious position.
I call this transitional vulnerability: the heightened exposure to risk during the in-between phase when systems are shifting, rules are in flux, and outcomes are still uncertain.
What Makes Transitional Vulnerability Different?
Unlike long-term structural vulnerability or sudden shocks, transitional vulnerability occurs when:
- Rules are changing: New standards, export requirements, or policies reshape the landscape.
- Power dynamics are visible: Established industry players may resist change or shape it to their advantage.
- Capacity gaps emerge: Farmers must adapt quickly, often without equal access to information, finance, or networks.
It is a moment of instability, but also a moment of possibility.
Ostrich camps near Peddie, Eastern Cape, South Africa
Lessons from the Eastern Cape Ostrich Industry
My doctoral research examined how emerging ostrich farmers in South Africa’s Eastern Cape tried to enter a sector historically dominated by commercial elites.
These farmers faced transitional vulnerabilities such as:
- Regulatory Shifts: EU biosecurity requirements tightened after avian influenza outbreaks.
- Market Realignment: Volatile global luxury demand for ostrich leather and feathers.
- Institutional Transition: Industry bodies navigating inclusivity under new agricultural empowerment policies.
Some farmers used this transitional moment to:
- Form cooperative marketing groups to gain bargaining power.
- Diversify production, integrating ostriches into mixed farming systems to reduce dependency.
- Strengthen local networks for shared equipment, training, and market information.
Others, however, were left stranded when donor-funded projects ended without building lasting local capacity.
Why Transitional Vulnerability Matters for Policy and Practice
If recognised early, transitional vulnerability can be a strategic opening for:
- Inclusive governance reforms that give emerging farmers a voice.
- Capacity-building aligned to future rules and markets rather than outdated practices.
- Innovation in production systems to buffer against future shocks.
- Cross-sector partnerships that integrate smallholders into high-value value chains.
The Takeaway
Transitions will keep coming in climate, markets, and governance. The real question is:
Will transitional vulnerability harden into long-term exclusion, or will we use it as a springboard for equity, resilience, and systemic change?
If you are working in agriculture, rural development, or policy, start mapping your system’s transitional vulnerabilities. They might be your most powerful levers for transformation.